Romanov Points

The pace of economic growth in China is falling rapidly - this is indicated by the published forecast of the Asian Development Bank (ADB) regarding the economic situation in the region. The document states that China’s gross domestic product (GDP) this year will increase by only 3.3 percent compared to 2021.

The forecast was downgraded by 1.7 percentage points compared to the bank’s previous report in April.

In today’s report, ADB attributes the slowdown in China’s growth, in part, to the impact of Beijing’s crackdown on the spread of the coronavirus. “China’s leadership is pursuing a policy of zero tolerance for infections, and this has largely led to the disruption of supply chains in industry, caused chaos in production,” ADB President Masatsugu Asakawa said in an interview with the Japanese TV channel NHK. “China has structural problems in the economy medium and long term. He needs to build a new economic system with the understanding that the country will probably not be able to quickly return to high economic growth.”

But India is doing well. In the bank’s report, the forecast for its GDP growth, however, was also lowered by 0.5 points. However, in general, in 2022, it is predicted to increase GDP by 7 percent.

In general, the bank’s experts believe that the total gross domestic product of developing countries in the Asia-Pacific region will increase by 4.3 percent compared to the previous year. This forecast was also downgraded by 0.9 points due to the impact of slower growth in China and rising global inflation.

ADB reports traditionally do not take into account data on Japan and other economically developed countries in the region. They summarize information on 45 developing countries and territories from the Transcaucasus and the former Central Asian republics of the USSR to the Pacific Ocean. The Asian Development Bank was established in 1966, is based in Manila and is engaged in concessional lending to various projects that help strengthen the region’s economy. The largest recipients of ADB financing are Bangladesh, India, Indonesia, China, Pakistan, and the Philippines.

Xi Jinping is now on a trip abroad at an extremely atypical period - on October 16, just a month later, the Congress of the Communist Party of China opens in Beijing, a key event for the PRC authorities. On it, Xi will break the old party tradition, which was that top posts can only be elected twice and for no more than 10 years. At the congress, he will retain for a third five-year term the position of General Secretary of the Central Committee of the Communist Party, and next year he will be re-elected for a third term as Chairman of the PRC (president of the country).

A trip abroad at such a crucial period, according to Tokyo, is designed to demonstrate that Xi Jinping is doing great and stable, and that he does not expect any surprises when extending his powers for an essentially unlimited period. It is believed that the new composition of the entire party-state leadership of China has already been formed, in which the balance between the various forces in the CPC is carefully maintained under the leadership of President Xi.

Now, Xi Jinping has traveled abroad for the first time since January 2020, when he visited Myanmar. Since then, the PRC leader has not left China, which has been fighting the coronavirus all this time with varying success and heavy losses. Today, Xi Jinping arrived in Kazakhstan, where he is holding talks with President Tokayev. In the same country, Pope Francis is now at a meeting of religious leaders. Many are waiting for his meeting with the leader of China, where the Catholics do not have much fun.

Well, on September 15-16, Xi Jinping will move to the ancient Uzbek Samarkand, where the summit of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization will be held. He is expected to meet with Vladimir Putin

The Government of Japan has officially announced a revision of the previous course towards a categorical rejection of the construction of new nuclear power plants in the country and expressed its readiness to study the development and construction of next-generation nuclear power reactors. In the medium and long term, this should help the country solve the problem of a stable supply of electricity and reduce carbon dioxide emissions, the Prime Minister’s Office said in a statement.

By the end of the year, it is planned to prepare several specific projects for future NPPs. We are talking about the development of compact reactors of a new type of increased safety, which should be operational in the 2030s.

After the accident at the Fukushima-1 nuclear power plant, the Japanese government decided not to build nuclear reactors anymore and not to modernize existing ones. However, such a course, according to Tokyo, has come into conflict with the current situation, when the country is faced with the threat of a shortage of electricity during peak periods of its consumption in hot summers and cold winters. The situation is aggravated by a sharp increase in prices for mineral fuels, which increases the attractiveness of using nuclear power plants.

The Japanese government also announced its intention to revise legislation that requires the use of existing nuclear power plants for a maximum of 60 years. It is now envisaged to authorize an extension of such deadlines subject to the fulfillment of a number of conditions, including security measures.

From the summer of 2023, the government plans to increase the number of nuclear power reactors operating in the country to 17. Currently, only 10 installations are licensed to operate and meet the new security criteria. However, in reality, only five reactors are currently operating, since the rest are stopped for additional checks.

After the accident at the Fukuksim-1 nuclear power plant in the spring of 2011, all nuclear power plants in Japan were shut down. Then some reactors began to be started up again after the adoption of enhanced security measures, including in relation to possible sabotage. In total, the country now has 33 nuclear reactors that are in principle capable of operation. The Government of Japan intends to increase the share of nuclear power plants in the total electricity production in the country to 20-22 percent by fiscal year 2030.

The Taiwan Affairs Office of the State Council and the State Council Information Office of the People’s Republic of China published a white paper titled “The Taiwan Question and China’s Reunification in the New Era“.

The White Paper notes that the Chinese authorities will never allow an attempt at Taiwan independence. Beijing assured that it will do everything possible for the peaceful return of the island. The document also states that “certain forces” in the United States have tried to use Taiwan against China.

Of particular interest in the report prepared by the Taiwan Affairs and Information Office of the State Council of the People’s Republic of China is the following statement:

“We will work with the greatest sincerity and exert our utmost efforts to achieve peaceful reunification. But we will not renounce the use of force, and we reserve the option of taking all necessary measures. This is to guard against external interference and all separatist activities. In no way does it target our fellow Chinese in Taiwan. Use of force would be the last resort taken under compelling circumstances. We will only be forced to take drastic measures to respond to the provocation of separatist elements or external forces should they ever cross our red lines.”

That is, China is ready for “peaceful reunification” with Taiwan, with the complete exclusion of various forms of “separatist activity” regarding the independence of the island, but the use of force to establish control over it is also not ruled out.

The white paper further states that the actions of the Taiwan Democratic Progressive Party authorities have led to tensions between the two sides of the Taiwan Strait, jeopardizing peace and stability in the region, as well as undermining the prospects and limiting the space for peaceful reunification. These are obstacles that need to be removed in order to advance the process of peaceful reunification, the authors of the report come to this conclusion.

The best approach to implement national reunification, according to Beijing, is the following:

“To realize peaceful reunification, we must acknowledge that the mainland and Taiwan have their own distinct social systems and ideologies. The One Country, Two Systems principle is the most inclusive solution to this problem. It is an approach that is grounded in democratic principles, demonstrates good will, seeks peaceful resolution of the Taiwan question, and delivers mutual benefit. The differences in social system are neither an obstacle to reunification nor a justification for secessionism. We firmly believe that our compatriots in Taiwan will develop a better understanding of the principle, and that the Two Systems solution to the Taiwan question will play its full role while compatriots on both sides work together towards peaceful reunification.”

Beijing’s first White Paper on Taiwan was published in 1993 after the two sides reached an oral consensus on the One China principle.

The authorities published a second “White Paper” on Taiwan in 2000 after Macau’s return to Chinese sovereignty. As a result, Taiwan was the only missing piece on the path to Chinese unification.

The USS Charles Drew arrived in Kattupalli, Chennai a few days ago for repairs. Some media saw this as a great success for the Indian shipbuilding and ship repair industry, as well as the success of the “Make in India” and “Atmanirbhar Bharat” initiatives. 

Deputy Defense Minister Ajay Kumar called the event a landmark day for the Indian shipbuilding industry and India-US defense relations. He also noted that the arrival of the USNS Charles Drew for repairs is an indicator of the high quality of the Indian shipbuilding industry. 
“Today there are six large shipyards in India with a turnover of about $2 billion. We build ships not only for our own needs.” 
  
Earlier it was reported that the US Naval Sealift Command assessed a number of shipyards in India and allowed L&T to repair its ships. L&T CEO’s adviser believes this is a recognition of the fact that the shipyard has a modern infrastructure that meets world standards. 
  
U.S. Consul General in Chennai Judith Ravin said, “At the U.S.-India 2+2 meeting in April, U.S. Secretary of State Anthony Blinken and Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin reaffirmed their intention to explore using Indian shipyards to repair U.S. Navy ships. The refurbishment of the USNS Charles Drew is a landmark event that should be highlighted as a symbol of the strengthened US-India partnership.” 
  
Rear Admiral Michael Baker, Defense Attaché at the U.S. Embassy in New Delo, said, “O Our shipping industries positively contribute to a free and open Indo-Pacific by partnering to deliver effective, efficient, and economical repair of military vessels.” 

A Lewis and Clark class dry cargo ship, the USNS Charles Drew will be at Kattupalli shipyard for a period of 11 days and undergo repairs in various areas. MSC already uses yards in the Middle East and Singapore. MSC did not respond to queries from Overt Defense before publication.

Moreover, it has transpired that the Indian defence attaché now has unescorted access to the Pentagon, a top US Defense Department official has said.