Friday, February 24, 2023

Why is Beijing proposing a peaceful “plan” right now ?

The main cause is that China has realized that West countries are ready to move Beijing in trade and supply chains in Eurasia, and in the medium term, to a certain extent, to limit China to the ASEAN / Asia-Pacific market.

And replace China with India!

That’s why the rapid reopening of the economy after covid. That’s why - practically copying the position of the West (and aimed at diplomatic normalization with it) points of the “peace plan”. That’s why the political overtures to Europe (a key market in Eurasia for China) and tensions with the United States. That’s why the point of the “plan”: “Ensure the sustainability of production and supply chains. It is necessary to defend the existing world economic system by practical actions, to oppose attempts to politicize the world economy, and also to use it as a tool and weapon. In order to prevent damage to the recovery of the global economy, it is necessary to jointly neutralize the negative consequences of the crisis, in particular for international cooperation in the field of energy, finance, grain trade and logistics.”

Indian Prime Minister of Great Britain. Biden nominates an Indian to head the World Bank. India orders over 1,000 new Boeing and Airbus aircraft by 2032. Westerners are trying to transfer production to India. The supply and logistics chains in Eurasia on which the West depends are gradually beginning to duplicate themselves along the ASEAN-India-Middle East-Europe lines parallel to the already existing Trans-Siberian Railway (today monopolized by China) and Beijing’s New Silk Road through Central Asia.

And all this in the last six months.

China is in a hurry and, judging by the content of the “peace plan”, the West has so far managed to comb it through trade, despite all the “latest Chinese warnings”.

Sunday, November 27, 2022

2022 Taiwanese local elections

Representatives of the opposition Kuomintang party, supporters of seeking mutual understanding with the PRC and the principle of “one China”, won a landslide victory in the November 26 local elections in Taiwan. They ended in a major defeat for the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), which takes a tough stance on Beijing and denies its “one country, two systems” model of unification.

As a result, Taiwan’s President Tsai Ing-wen resigned as chairman of the DPP in recognition of her responsibility. Its influence will now undoubtedly weaken, which could create a situation of political instability. And it will intensify the struggle around the upcoming presidential elections in Taiwan in 2024. Tsai Ing-wen, by the way, will no longer be able to participate in them - she has already held the post of head of state for two consecutive terms, she has no more right to be elected.
Specifically, the representatives of the Kuomintang won four of the six so-called mayors in the elections. special municipalities (the largest cities, where 70 percent of the population lives). But, by the way, there is no particular sensation in this - the Kuomintang party also performed well in the last local elections in 2018.

Domestic politics, economics, and social problems are always at the center of attention in local elections. The questions of the confrontation with Beijing, which the ruling party tried to press, did not particularly excite the voters this time. However, they are expected to come to the fore in the 2024 presidential election.

Beijing really hopes that in 2024, a representative of this particular party, which was once a sworn enemy of the Chinese Communists, will win the presidential elections in Taiwan. These are the paradoxes of history.

Tuesday, November 22, 2022

Strengthening the Japanese Navy

Two of the latest destroyers of the Japanese Navy “Maya” and “Haguro” with the Aegis multi-purpose tracking and guidance system successfully hit the ballistic missiles of the alleged enemy during the exercises off the Hawaiian Islands. At the same time, as announced today by the Ministry of Defense of the country, “Maya” for the first time used again the latest missile of the joint US-Japanese development SM3 Block2A, which, as they say, has greatly improved interception capabilities.

The two ships thus confirmed their combat performance. And now Japan has eight Aegis missile ships ready for battle - more than any other US ally.

This fleet is to play a major role in Japan’s missile defense system, which is focused primarily on China and North Korea.

During the exercises near Hawaii, the US military launched dummy ballistic missiles. Japanese destroyers destroyed them outside the Earth’s atmosphere. At the same time, they intensively exchanged information, helped each other to fix and maintain goals. The Japanese missile defense system, by the way, is strongly integrated with the American one.

Sunday, November 6, 2022

Japan to Maintain Interest in Sakhalin-1 Project

The Japanese participants in the Sakhalin-1 oil and gas project officially decided to stay there even after Moscow transferred it to Russian jurisdiction with a Russian operator. The relevant notice will be sent to the Russian government by November 11, Minister of Economy, Trade and Industry Yasutoshi Nishimura said today at a press conference in Tokyo.

He is directly related to the project - it is his department that owns half of the shares in the Japanese consortium Sakhalin Oil and Gas Development Co. (Sodeco), which, in turn, has a 30% stake in Sakhalin-1. The Japanese consortium also includes several private companies, including trading-investment corporations ITOCHU and Marubeni.

Earlier, Japanese companies decided to maintain their previous positions in the Sakhalin-2 project, within which a plant for the production of liquefied natural gas (LNG) operates. It has also been transferred under the control of a Russian operator. At a press conference, Minister Nishimura explained this by the extreme importance of both projects for the energy security of his country, which, as you know, has practically no natural resources of its own. This statement is not entirely true. Indeed, Japan receives almost 9 percent of the LNG it needs from Sakhalin-2, which is quite a lot. It is not easy to find a replacement for this volume in the current situation, especially against the backdrop of the European Union’s refusal of pipeline gas from Russia and its replacement with LNG supplies.

However, Japan has not been buying oil from Sakhalin-1 for a long time, and, in fact, is not going to. Minister Nishimura, however, said that participation in this project is important, perhaps for the future. Japan, he recalled, receives 95 percent of the oil it uses from the Middle East, and this, they say, is dangerous.

However, there is another factor that is not talked about aloud in Tokyo. Here they fear that if the Japanese leave the Sakhalin projects, Chinese companies will take their place. And such a turn of events in Tokyo is considered a real threat - therefore, the Japanese will hold on tightly to Sakhalin with its wealth and extreme geographical proximity.

The crises around Sakhalin-1 and Sakhalin-2 arose after the American corporation Esson-Mobil and the British Shell, respectively, decided to leave because of the Ukrainian events. After that, oil production at the same “Sakhalin-1” fell sharply. Japan also fears that it will not be easy to replace Western specialists within the framework of the Sakhalin-2 project.

Sunday, October 30, 2022

India’s nuclear arsenal

How many nuclear weapons does India have in 2022?

India now has 160 nuclear warheads ranging from 10 to 40 kilotons, as well as 128 nuclear weapon carriers. This was reported by the Federation of American Scientists - a rather interesting organization.

Initially, it was created on their own initiative by participants in the Manhattan Project to create the world’s first atomic bomb in the United States. Then the structure was seriously strengthened, almost 70 Nobel laureates are now its sponsors. The Federation is engaged in research and reports in the field of nuclear weapons.

So - in India, according to this organization, 64 ballistic missiles are equipped with nuclear warheads. Range from 350 to 3.2 thousand kilometers. Next year, missiles with a range of up to 3,500 and 5,000 kilometers will be put into service. On the way - a range of up to 6 thousand kilometers. Large missiles are openly aimed at China, since there are already enough nuclear forces to strike Pakistan for a long time.

The Indian Air Force has 32 combat aircraft capable of carrying nuclear weapons. These are 32 French Mirage 2000 and 16 Anglo-French Jaguar IS. They can deliver nuclear bombs with a yield of up to 12 kilotons to the target.

So far, the nuclear potential of the Indian Navy is reduced to one nuclear submarine with 12 missiles and two surface ships with one missile each. Soon the Navy will include another nuclear submarine with nuclear missiles capable of hitting targets even in the Beijing area.