Tuesday, October 18, 2022
China’s 20th Communist Party Congress. My vision of the progression of events in the future.
The main topic this week was the 20th Congress of the Communist Party of China. At the congress, in addition to reports on the implementation and overfulfillment of plans, Xi Jinping will be re-elected as the leader of the PRC and the party.
Already today, even before the elections, President Xi said that by 2027 the country’s army would be modernized to the world level, in addition, he announced his readiness, including by military means, to return Taiwan to China.
Now, when the mandate to govern the country will be received for another 5 years, the PRC leadership can move from a policy of “endless concerns” to asymmetric responses to Western provocations, or maybe start provoking itself. At the same time, before the US elections, that is, until November 7, a window of opportunity will open before China. Democrats will experience the “Pelosi Syndrome” and will not be able to adequately respond to any actions of China, fearing not only to lose the elections to the Congress and the Senate, which is almost a foregone conclusion, but to lose them devastatingly.
Deliveries of weapons and dual-use items to Russia (which were already carried out, but covertly and in limited quantities), dispersal of global energy prices (while having access to cheap Russian fuel), aggressive work with the national governments of European countries aimed at destroying the EU as a pro-American organization, these are only the most obvious actions that will be available to Xi immediately after re-election.
A new revolution of the chessboard will take place after the Republicans come to power in the United States. In the reports of think tanks associated with US intelligence and the Republican Party, it is China that is indicated as the main “headache” of the United States and emphasizes the need to prevent Russia from finally leaving under Chinese influence. Albeit at the price of accepting its claims to Ukrainian territories.
The re-election of Xi, the rise to power of the right in European countries, the victory of the Republicans in the United States - all this will become key prerequisites for the conclusion of a new Yalta 2.0, which will fix the already happened fact of the transition from a unipolar world to a multipolar one.